iPredict is New Zealands first real money predictions market. At a time when everyone is debating whether the current market should be left to sort itself out (as general theory suggests it would) or should be bailed out it interesting to observe what is, from my point of view, a new type of market.
Prediction Markets have actually been around since 1988 and harness the wisdom of crowds.
Like a stock market, stocks can be bought and traded and based on this trading a price for a predication is established that represents the crowds wisdom.
The majority of the current ‘stocks’ on iPredict deal with our upcoming election. Even if you don’t want to become a trader it does provide some interesting insight.
Research shows that Prediction Markets have a very high success rate and from an election point of view the reasoning for this is:
Prediction markets beat political polling for two reasons. First, they ask the right question. Pollsters ask who you will vote for. Prediction markets ask who is going to win. Second, prediction market traders put money where their mouths are, so it pays to do a little homework.
iPredict is owned by Victoria Link Ltd, itself wholly owned by Victoria University of Wellington, and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR), also in Wellington. Our primary purpose is academic research.
While iPredict allows traders to make money I have found it just as interesting to monitor the stocks without actually yet purchasing.
I had only been in the UK for 2 hours but decided it was the best way to catch up with Hamish and the team and see how things were going for Xero in the UK.
I have visited the Apple Store on numerous occassions but had never really appreciated how BIG it was till I had to find the presentation area towards the back of level 1.
I am continually amazed at what happens in an Apple Store – at one level it is basically a large, free, Mac based internet cafe. People check their email, update their Facebook and one guy was sorting himself a date on Polish Dating UK!
Anyway, back to the Xero presentation. Hamish and his team did a great overview and it was fantastic to see this NZ Company getting a great response and positive feedback to their innovative accounting software (who would have ever thought those two words would be used together!)
The Apple Store presents a somewhat difficult environment as it is hard to determine exactly how many of the people in the presentation area are there for the presentation and how many just are using it as seat and some timeout in an otherwise chaotic environment!
All I know is that Hamish believed the event to be a great succcess and is likely to do it again in the near future.
For any of you running a small business I definitely recommend Xero – currently available in NZ, the UK and soon AUS!
Like most Kiwi’s I appreciate a good coffee which leads to one of my pet hates regarding travelling! There are very few places that make a coffee as well as my local cafe Bar Italia, Takapuna.
Having been in London for the last few days I made it my mission to hunt out Flat White a kiwi-run coffee shop in Soho – winner Independent Coffee Bar of the Year in the UK 2007 – Project Cafe07.
So there I was standing in line waiting to order a long awaited Latte and low and behold, in Soho, London I am standing behind William Tozer, an old friend from my days studying Architecture at Auckland University.
What a coincidence! William was recently featured in Architecture NZ as after having completed his studies he has been practicing Architecture in London for the last 12 years. Having read the article, I had thought I should look him up if I got the chance!
During the short wait for my coffee William and I caught up on 12 years!
The coffee and the catch up were both superb and I strongly recommend all Kiwi Coffee Lovers in London to make a visit to Flat White – you never know who you may bump into!
Over the last few days i have found screeds of items on the new Google Chrome. Rowan Simpson has taken the application view point further with some interesting results inlcuding a great Xero app for the Mac.
Over the last three months the directors of The Cadimage Group have invested significant time into reviewing and renewing our business strategy.
While the cost of doing this, both in $ and time, is significant I can’t recommend it more highly.
As a small business owner there is the constant trap of getting caught in the busy’ness of business. As I have heard many times you have to “work on you business not in your business.”
To help us with this process we used Helen and Greg Cross of Cross Ventures. They bring an immense amount of knowledge and experience to the table and effectively we “chewed the fat” for a couple of days talking about our business and where it could go. Helen then put together a comprehensive overview of where we are and where we want to go along with a great financial model.
Having undertaken this process I found a huge amount of clarity in what we are doing and when attending the Morgo conference I found it easy to talk about what we do and where we are going.
I was pleasantly surprised to also be congratulated by a number of people for actually taking the plunge and investing in our strategic plan. To me, having completed the exercise it seems so logical to have done it, but again it is easy to get caught in the day to day running of your business and failing to come up for air and see where you are going.
Helen and Greg provide an awesome service and are there to check up on us as we move along our path so it is now time to start implementing and constantly reviewing.
On reflection my only regret is not doing this sooner!
I was fortunate to be invited to Morgo 08 an extremely rewarding experience where I was able to rub shoulders (network) with some of NZ’s best entreprenuers along with invisted guests from around the globe.
Jenny Morel, the founder of No8 Ventures and the Morgo concept, in a pre-event article in Unlimited magazine explained that she is always a little nervous in the lead up to Morgo and that she uses the noise level at the first networking dinner to determine if the event will be successful. Well the noise at ALL meals was almost deafening and I certainly sum up the overall event as a wonderful success.
Glenn Martin’s presentation regarding his recently released Jetpack was an amazing example of someone who has put his life into an idea. It was just a pity his jet pac was still stuck in the USA somewhere.
As always, the Segways proved popular and there was more than a little NZ/Aussie competitiveness when Scott Farquhar from Atlassian got up and going.
One of the main ‘rules’ at Morgo is “that everything that is discussed at Morgo stays at Morgo” This allows everyone to get a huge amount of value by being confident they can share commercially sensitive information in a forum where ideas can be explored freely and everyone has valuable input to offer.
That said, there have been a number of items published recently that follow on from the Morgo Conference:
This grant matches our Marketing Spending $ for $ (up to a limit) and is helps us develop our Cadimage Tools export business.
Running an online business and attraching customers is a challenging exercise. Having the support NZTE allows us to travel and meet customers and partners worldwide.
In the 8 months of this year we have already doubled last years sales and this can be directly attributed to the support with have received from NZTE.
Applying for a Grant of this nature is a challenge in itself which is why we used Helen Cross of Cross Ventures. For a small success fee Helen takes care of the entire application process and makes the process a breeze.
If you are New Zealand Export business make sure you maximise your investment by partnering with NZTE.
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